What are the chances China will attack India during the US general elections? Does India prepare for such scenario?
I think it is pretty likely. My personal assessment is that they have invested too much to back off quietly. They are after something big. My guess is China is planning to pin our troops on the east while the real attack will come from Pakistan . To take over the Siachen and some key parts of Kashmir (Kargil etc.)
At a minimum they will want the Siachen glacier to connect China and Pak. Also to protect the belt between the two countries.
We should note that China has little to gain by pushing the border by a few km. They are not after empty land. There is not much development on the west side of China.
See below night image which shows there isn’t any significant infrastructure in Tibet ,so the eastern border is of limited economic importance.
But it gives them a strangle hold on India in a sensitive area and hence is of strategic importance for negotiations and trade.
China will not want a prolonged or heavy conflict with India – just a skirmish at best after which “Hindi Chini bhai bhai” will begin again. They need India as a market and will make moves to bridge the gap between the two countries calling this skirmish a “blip” in history.
So what are China’s real objectives? Here are some possibilities:
- Secure the China Pak belt to allow more military trade and movement to Pak. China doesn’t like PakIstan any more than India but Pakistan is a good market to sell weapons as they too are trying to move on from US weapons.
- Destabilise Indo-Pak relations sufficiently to detract investors from investing in India. No one will invest in a war zone.
- Create an arms race between India and Pak to sell more weapons to Pak and also a good way to to gain access to the Middle East (Iran etc).
- Remove dependency on the west and change primary exports from electronics and toys to indigenous weapons. To do this they need to demonstrate their weapons and military prowess. This is an opportunity to showcase their capability to US and the west.
My guess – After a short skirmish and demonstration of firepower China will push for a cease fire and suggest they had nothing to do with Pakistan’s takeover of Siachen. Siachen will be referred to as a bilateral issue between India and Pak.
That’s perhaps the plan but, India will not be intimidated so easily. The era of dictatorships are over.Men are born to be free to make choices – to learn from their own mistakes. Every dictatorship will learn to accept this some day.
I suspect this event will only unite the worlds major democracies – US, EU, India, Aus, Japan and sow the seeds of a major cold / hot war that will bring the end of many major dictatorships in the world.
I hope I am wrong and Covid remains the worst thing to happen this decade!!!
“Let he who desires peace prepare for war”
– Roman Proverb